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As of today, there have been 580 coronavirus deaths in the USA. It takes around 30 days for a case to progress from the initial infection to death, which means these 580 people were initially infected roughly around 30 days ago.
A conservative estimate of the case fatality rate is 2%, which means 98% survive, so for every 1 person who dies from the coronavirus, 49 additional people were infected but didn’t die.
Since we now have 580 confirmed deaths, this means that 30 days ago there were 580 x 49 people infected, which is 28,420.
Understand this is not a forward-looking projection. This is history. We know with high certainty there were at least 28,420 people infected in America about 30 days ago. The real number may be much higher, but we know it isn’t lower than 28,420.
The number of coronavirus infections in the USA is currently doubling every 3 days, not considering strong social distancing factors (which I’ll cover below). If 28,420 people were already infected 30 days ago, there have been 10 doublings of the virus since.
2^10 is 1024, which we’ll round to 1,000. So that means there are theoretically 28,420 x 1000 infections in the USA right now. That number is 28 million.
In reality, the number of infections is very likely smaller because of the recent lockdowns. Once the lockdowns began, the cycle of exponential spread was strongly suppressed, so we might be significantly lower than 28 million. Reasonably, we might say 10 million Americans could be infected right now. This is a projection / estimate, not an actual confirmed number, but it’s based on sound math.
If 10 million Americans are infected right now, around 1.5 million will require hospitalization in the subsequent weeks, since about 15% of infections result in a need for hospitalization.
There are nowhere near 1.5 million hospital beds available in America, and medical staff are already on the verge of being overrun in New York City.
If 10 million Americans are already infected and the case fatality rate is 2%, that means 200,000 Americans would theoretically already be on track to die from the coronavirus inside the next 45 days.
Nobody in America is prepared for even 100,000 deaths. It’s unthinkable for most Americans. Yet it’s almost certain to occur sooner than you think. Hence the spread of denialism. People who can’t deal with reality fabricate and alternate reality to tell themselves a fairy tale, like Dr. David Brownstein now claiming the case fatality rate from the regular flu is 10%, from which he concludes the coronavirus is “less deadly than the flu.”
He is delusional.
What I’ve described above is the simple math version. I’ve actually created far more elaborate coronavirus pandemic projection models that take into account lag times, social distancing factors and the phenomenon of previously infectious people overcoming the virus and no longer being infectious.
One model, which I publicly released as an open source spreadsheet (version 2), predicted 585 deaths by March 30th. Obviously, the model was too conservative, since we’ve already reached 580 deaths a week earlier (today).
That model projected 10,000 deaths in America by the end of April. It’s now fairly clear that will happen closer to mid-April.
By the end of May, if strong social distancing factors are not increased, the model shows 100,000 coronavirus deaths in the USA.
It only gets worse from there.
Here’s where we are right now, via Worldometers.info:
As all this is unfolding, President Trump now says he wants America to get back to work after the 15-day social distancing experiment we’re all living under right now.
Returning America to full-blown social interaction after just a two-week isolation period would be nothing short of catastrophic, for it would allow the cycle of exponential spread to pick up right where it left off, leading to literally millions of deaths in America before the November elections.
By trying to protect the stock market now, Trump is committing political suicide and ending any remaining chance at the presidency. No president can survive the deaths of millions of people under his watch, especially when he encouraged people to ignite a second wave of the virus by “getting America back to work” to boost the stock market rallies while bailing out the rich corporate executives.
Dr. Fauci is correct on all this, it turns out, and if President Trump doesn’t listen to Dr. Fauci’s advice on a 7-8 week lockdown, the Trump presidency is over.
Bank on it.
Or since the banks will soon collapse, maybe that’s not the best metaphor.
But mark my words: There is no way America gets out of this with fewer than 100,000 deaths, and by offering you that incredibly low, “best case” number, I’m trying to ease your psyche into the far worse reality that’s likely coming, since I’ve come to learn that most people are mental snowflakes and can’t handle any numbers that threaten their internal delusions.
If you really want a brain buster, prepare your mind for the Joe Biden presidency…
This is not the flu, and anyone saying this is the flu is disqualified from talking about anything that involves public health ever again.
This is not a “hoax,” and anyone saying this is a hoax is only mocking themselves with embarrassing self-stupidity.
This is not going to just fade away, and anyone who thinks America can just “get back to work” after a two-week lockdown is living in a fairy tale.
The coronavirus is a global biological weapon system designed to exterminate human life. It was engineered to spread, to hide and then to kill, and it is carrying out that programming perfectly. Anyone stupid enough to underestimate its capabilities may be consumed by it… literally starting with their lungs.
Oblivious people are right now telling me they are “totally prepared” because they have 2-3 weeks of food. Many of those people will be dead this calendar year, some from the virus and others from starvation, disease or chaos / collapse. They have no clue what’s coming. They think this is a winter storm and that it will just blow over. They are outrageously, hopelessly, mindlessly wrong… but simultaneously too stupid to survive. They will soon be eliminated from the human gene pool.
Arguably, no person on the internet right now has been more consistently accurate and honest about reporting these coronavirus trends than myself. I’m the one who told you nearly a month ago that we would see the 580 deaths which were confirmed today. When the entire country was claiming this was “no big deal” and would just blow over, I rolled out pandemic projection model numbers that accurately demonstrated how we were headed for 2.16 million deaths by July 4th if we didn’t start locking things down.
My models were so accurate that a rumor actually spread within the government, I’m told, that somebody in the CDC was leaking classified numbers to Natural News. That rumor was false. I simply had a good mathematical model. To prove it, I released it publicly, showing all the math in the spreadsheet. You can download it yourself.
My model was describing the same scenario that the CDC, HHS and DHS were describing to US Senators during that classified briefing that caused many of them to start panic-selling stocks. The government has known about these numbers for a long time, even if the media pundits, publishers and journalists remained in a state of total denial because they were playing politics, trying to downplay the severity of the pandemic.
This is what conservative news organizations like InfoWars and The Gateway Pundit still don’t understand: The lockdowns are not some attempt to implement martial law for the sake of tyranny, they are the last-ditch SURVIVAL tactic for America. If we don’t lock things down, we suffer millions of deaths, Trump is thrown out of office (or voted out) and America as we know it is over.
The lockdown is the only pathway by which Trump can remain president. If he tries to put America back to work after a 15-day lockdown, he will end America as we know it.
On this issue, Trump should listen to Dr. Fauci. Isolation is the only answer. Prematurely ending isolation is national suicide, and the conservatives who keep shouting, “Don’t make the cure worse than the disease!” are medically and scientifically ignorant, wholly unqualified to utter a single word about this pandemic.
That’s why conservatives may yet destroy Trump with their stupid, ignorant, reckless narratives about the coronavirus, which they almost universally claim is “no worse than the flu.” What will they say after the first 100,000 dead Americans hit the news headlines?
If you want to live, read Pandemic.news.
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