- Bitcoin's circulating supply is predominantly held by long-term investors (79%), indicating a potential bear market end and accumulation phase.
- Low old-coin reactivation and ETF outflows suggest reduced selling pressure and possible market stabilization.
- The Federal Reserve's policy and macroeconomic factors introduce uncertainty, with potential rate hikes affecting Bitcoin's volatility.
- Analysts from K33 note historical patterns suggesting a market inflection point, though some predict further price declines.
- Mixed signals indicate Bitcoin could either rebound or face a deeper correction, depending on on-chain behavior and institutional demand.
Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a major market reversal, with on-chain data suggesting the cryptocurrency is nearing the end of its prolonged bear market. According to K33, a leading crypto research firm, 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held by long-term investors, a record high and a historical precursor to the end of previous bear cycles. This shift, combined with a near-historic low in old-coin reactivation, has sparked cautious optimism among analysts, though macroeconomic uncertainty remains a looming threat.
Historic accumulation by long-term holders
K33's latest report highlights a critical trend: long-term holders (LTHs) have steadily increased their share of Bitcoin's supply. As of June 6, 2026, LTHs controlled 79% of circulating BTC, a figure that has not been seen since the early days of Bitcoin. "This is not just a data point, it's a pattern," said K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde. "Every major bear market in Bitcoin's history has culminated in a similar consolidation of supply among patient, long-term holders."
The data suggests a shift in market behavior. Historically, bear markets end when short-term traders and speculators exit, leaving institutional and long-term investors to absorb remaining supply. "When LTHs dominate the market, it signals a lack of selling pressure and a growing belief in Bitcoin's long-term value," Lunde explained.
Another telling metric is the near-absence of old-coin reactivation. Only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been moved in 2026 as of June 6, a figure dwarfed by the 1.18 million BTC reactivated by the same date in 2024, which preceded the last market peak. Lunde notes, "Low reactivation means holders are not selling their older coins, which are often accumulated during past bull markets. This is a strong indicator of accumulation rather than distribution."
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, a major source of selling pressure in recent weeks, have also slowed. K33's analysis reveals that trading volume has retreated to yearly lows, a pattern typically observed in the late stages of bear markets rather than the beginning of new sell cycles. "This is not the behavior of a market in freefall," Lunde added.
Macro conditions and the Fed's role
Bitcoin's price recovery has been modest thus far, with the asset trading near $65,000 on June 17, a 16% drop from its mid-May high of $79,000 and 40% below its October 2025 peak of $126,198. However, the broader macroeconomic landscape adds uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting, led by new Chair Kevin Warsh, is under close scrutiny. Markets are pricing in potential rate hikes later in 2026 and Bitcoin's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 remains at 0.6, meaning any shifts in Fed policy could amplify BTC's volatility.
While K33's findings are bullish, not all analysts agree. Wintermute, Glassnode and Bitfinex have flagged concerns about ETF flows, stablecoin growth and institutional demand, noting these metrics have not yet reached levels consistent with a durable recovery. Some forecasts even predict Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 before a sustained rebound occurs.
Despite the mixed signals, K33's data suggests a potential turning point. With 50% of Bitcoin's circulating supply currently underwater, the market may be nearing a critical inflection point. Lunde cautions, however, that "one final leg lower could still occur before a true bottom is reached."
For now, Bitcoin's price has clawed back from two consecutive weeks of double-digit losses, posting a 5.5% gain in the past week. Whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or a temporary reprieve remains to be seen. As the Fed's policy decisions and macroeconomic trends unfold, investors are left to weigh the evidence of a market poised for renewal or a deeper plunge.
Bitcoin's future
Supporters of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin argue that decentralized, non-counterfeitable assets like BTC represent a bulwark against the fragility of fiat currencies and centralized financial systems. Skeptics, however, warn of the risks inherent in speculative markets driven by emotion and macroeconomic volatility.
As the crypto community watches for signals, one thing is clear: Bitcoin's journey is far from over. Whether it ascends to new heights or faces a final reckoning in 2026 will depend on the interplay of on-chain behavior, institutional demand and the unpredictable forces of global finance.
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