The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) jumped 8.8% to about $96.88, Agnico Eagle Mines rose 8.85% to roughly $282.44 and Barrick Mining advanced 7.66% to $45.33, according to exchange data. Mining company shares often move more dramatically than the underlying metals in response to price changes, according to an analysis by PeakProsperity.com [1]. A commentary on Daily Reckoning described the day's action as "a great day for gold, silver, and miners" and said the Treasury's move was "another signal that the U.S. government is desperate to get debt yields lower" [7].
The catalyst came from the Treasury rather than the Federal Reserve, according to the report. Two weeks after publishing its quarterly buyback schedule, the Treasury said Wednesday it was "increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations" for securities in the 10- to 30-year sector, Bloomberg reported. The tentative calendar for Sept. 9 through Nov. 4 had indicated purchases of as much as $14 billion; doubling that amount implies at least another $14 billion in purchases, with operations beginning Sept. 9.
The action followed a 10-year auction last week that drew the highest financing cost for that maturity since 2007 and a 30-year sale the following day at the steepest yield since 2001, according to Bloomberg. The Treasury paid about $85 billion in interest to bondholders days earlier, the largest such payment in Bloomberg's records.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in November that his job is "to be the nation's top bond salesman" and that Treasury yields are a strong barometer for measuring success in that effort. He has separately said he wants the 10-year yield below 4%, Reuters reported this month.
Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, and a weaker dollar makes the metal cheaper for buyers using other currencies, according to market analysts. The rally showed how sensitive precious metals have become to movements at the long end of the Treasury market, the report stated.
Mining stocks, which have outpaced the underlying metals this month, posted even stronger gains, with GDX up 8.8%, according to exchange data. R.T. Naylor wrote in "Crass Struggle" that because shares of start-up mining ventures are issued for pennies, small changes in the world price of gold, real or merely anticipated, can cause sharp moves in those shares [4].
Investors have also sought physical metals as a store of value; David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report, said the market is seeing "a realignment of value back to physical assets" [6]. Separately, many nations and central banks have increased their gold purchases in recent years, according to an interview with Chris Olsen [5].
Bloomberg macro strategist Cameron Crise said the additional buying alone is unlikely to reverse long-end selling, although the Treasury's signal could encourage further short-covering, according to Bloomberg. Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, compared the move with a version of Operation Twist, the Federal Reserve strategy that sought to lower longer-term borrowing costs by altering the maturity profile of its holdings. McIntyre told Bloomberg that a slowing economy or a resolution of the Iran conflict would ultimately be more powerful forces for pulling long-term rates lower.
Jonathan Spall notes in "How to Profit in Gold" that many investors buy equities in gold mining companies for reasons that differ from those who buy bullion [3]. For precious metals investors, the immediate effect was clearer: Treasury intervention relieved pressure from elevated long-term yields and a strong dollar, while miners amplified the metals' gains, according to the report.
Treasury buyback operations are scheduled to begin Sept. 9, according to the tentative calendar. Traders were also preparing for a $16 billion auction of new 20-year bonds, Bloomberg reported. Whether larger buybacks can keep long-term yields lower remains uncertain, according to analysts including Crise and McIntyre.
Some longer-term forecasts remain bullish; analysts cited by NaturalNews.com have projected gold at up to $15,000 an ounce within five years and advised investors to stay calm during rallies and price retreats [2]. Gold and silver prices remained higher Wednesday morning, with miners posting the largest percentage gains among the asset classes tracked.