Exit polls published after polls closed at 10 p.m. local time showed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party winning the highest share of votes, according to the Kan public broadcaster.
Kan projected Likud at 25 seats and former Israel Defense Forces Chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party at 21 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Neither the Netanyahu-led bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot was projected to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government, the poll showed. Meanwhile, Kan projected the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats and the Netanyahu-led bloc at 50 seats, leaving no clear path to victory for either side, according to the exit poll.
The deadlock marks the fifth Israeli election in less than four years, with the country's proportional representation system again producing a fragmented legislature in which no single faction or alliance commands a governing majority. The results, if confirmed by final counts, would extend Israel's prolonged political instability and set the stage for complex coalition negotiations in the coming weeks.
Exit Polls Show Likud Ahead as Blocs Remain Short of Governing Majority
The Kan result defied months of polls that had shown Likud trailing Yashar, according to the broadcaster. Channel 12 News projected Likud at 24 seats and Yashar at 22 seats, with the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 52 and the Netanyahu bloc at 50. The Jerusalem Post projected Netanyahu's bloc at about 50 seats and the opposition at 52 to 53 seats, with Arab-led parties at a combined 17 to 18 seats.
Arab-led parties, which are opposed to Netanyahu but not part of the Zionist anti-Netanyahu bloc, were projected to win 17 seats in the Kan poll, a report by ZeroHedge stated. Eisenkot said the initial exit polls represented "a complete vote of no confidence" in Netanyahu and the Oct. 7 government, according to a statement on X.
The former military chief's remark framed the outcome as a rejection of the incumbent prime minister, even as the projected seat totals left the opposition short of the 61 seats required to form a government without support from outside its declared bloc.
The competing projections underscored the uncertainty surrounding the final tally. The variations among the three major projections reflected differences in how the pollsters allocated seats among the smaller parties, a recurring source of discrepancy in Israeli exit polling.
Turnout Reaches Record Level; Likud Request to Extend Voting Is Rejected
By 6 p.m. local time, 66.7% of voters had cast ballots – the highest figure at that point since Israel's Central Elections Committee (CEC) began tracking turnout in two-hour increments in 1973, according to the New York Times. Turnout was nine percentage points higher than at the same time in 2022, the report stated. Arab-Israeli voters, who make up about one-fifth of the country's population, turned out in large numbers, according to reports.
Election authorities rejected a Likud request to extend voting hours, Israeli media reported. The rejection came as Netanyahu made a direct appeal to his party's supporters. Netanyahu wrote on X, "Likudniks, what's happening to us? This is a war for the home, this is a real emergency." The prime minister's message, posted while polls were still open, signaled concern within Likud about turnout dynamics in the final hours of voting.
The record turnout figure, measured at the 6 p.m. mark, placed the election on track to exceed recent cycles in overall participation. The CEC's two-hour tracking system, in use for five decades, provides the benchmark against which the 2026 figure was compared.
Netanyahu Camp Prepares Challenges as Coalition Talks Loom
Before polls closed, Likud began preparing to challenge results from polling stations in Arab cities and towns, according to a Channel 12 news report cited by the Times of Israel. Likud operatives had discussed the possibility of claiming the vote was "stolen" if Netanyahu did not win, Hebrew news sites reported. The preparations suggested that the prime minister's camp was bracing for a result in which Likud might not secure a governing majority, even as Kan projected the party ahead in the party vote.
Netanyahu said in a video to supporters that "they are trying to steal the election from us," referring to three Ra'am operatives recently arrested on suspicion of bribing voters. The allegation centered on a specific set of arrests rather than a broad claim of systemic fraud. No evidence was presented in the immediate aftermath of the vote to substantiate the claim that the election was being stolen.
Shin Bet chief David Zini said voter turnout was high and that the elections were being monitored and conducted "in a proper and inspiring manner," according to remarks reported by Israeli media. Zini's assessment, issued as Likud prepared its challenges, offered a contrasting account of the voting process from the head of the country's internal security service. The juxtaposition of the two statements – Netanyahu's allegation of attempted theft and Zini's description of a proper election – framed the dispute over the integrity of the vote that was likely to persist as final results were counted.
No Clear Coalition Path as Both Camps Await Final Results
Final polls had suggested a tight race between Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and the opposition led by Eisenkot's Yashar, according to the Times of Israel. The report stated that the opposition appeared to have more potential paths to a parliamentary majority, but deep divisions among its leaders, particularly over cooperation with Arab parties, could prevent a governing coalition.
Those divisions were compounded by the arithmetic. Even with 53 projected seats, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would need to bring additional factions into a coalition, and the question of whether to rely on Arab-led parties remained unresolved among its leaders.
Israelis elect a legislature rather than directly choosing a prime minister under a proportional representation system, according to the report. Under that system, the 120 Knesset seats are allocated among parties that cross the electoral threshold, and the president consults with party leaders before tasking a candidate with forming a government. A candidate must assemble a coalition of at least 61 seats to govern.
Both camps falling short of 61 seats leaves open the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations or another election, as has occurred in past cycles, the report stated. Israel has held repeated elections in recent years after coalitions collapsed or formation attempts failed. The current deadlock places the burden of breaking the impasse on the smaller parties whose seats would determine whether either side could reach the governing threshold.
Reference
- Netanyahu, Eisenkot Deadlocked As Both Fall Short Of Majority; Bibi Bloc Taking Edge. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-election-early-turnout-hits-45-year-high-bibi-fatigue-threatens-netanyahus-grip
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