- A Royal Society study finds no significant increase in climate-driven species extinctions over the past 200 years, challenging claims of a current "sixth mass extinction."
- Analyzing 912 documented extinctions over 500 years and data on nearly two million species, researchers found extinction rates have generally declined over the last century, especially among plants and arthropods.
- Data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List show the highest extinction rates among turtles, molluscs, and freshwater species, largely due to habitat fragmentation, dam construction and limited ranges.
- The study identifies habitat loss and invasive species, not climate change, as the primary drivers of recent extinctions, particularly in island ecosystems and freshwater environments.
- The authors caution against attributing large-scale biodiversity loss to global warming, contradicting alarmist claims frequently amplified by activists and some media outlets.
A recent U.K. Royal Society study is challenging widely held claims that climate change is driving a "sixth mass extinction," concluding that species-level extinctions linked directly to climate change have not increased significantly over the past two centuries.
According to the study, published in October in Proceedings B of the Royal Society, extinction rates across many groups have either stabilized or declined in recent decades, particularly among arthropods and plants, which together account for the majority of known global biodiversity. The study analyzed extinction patterns over the past five centuries, examining 912 documented plant and animal extinctions while drawing on data covering nearly two million species.
The extinction rate, as per BrightU.AI's Enoch, is the rate at which species are disappearing from the Earth. It is measured by the number of species that go extinct per unit of time, typically per year or per century.
Using data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, which includes more than 163,000 assessed species, the authors found the highest extinction frequencies among turtles and molluscs. Freshwater species, especially fish and molluscs, were found to be more vulnerable than marine species, largely due to habitat fragmentation and dam construction.
Researchers found that while overall extinction rates rose over the past 500 years, they have generally declined over the last 100 years, a trend they say does not support claims of an ongoing climate-driven mass extinction.
The researchers acknowledged limitations in extinction data, noting that documenting species loss is complex and often incomplete. Still, they said long-term datasets suggest plant extinctions peaked in the early 20th century, aligning with their broader conclusion that extinction rates have not accelerated in recent decades.
The study ultimately cautions against attributing large-scale biodiversity loss primarily to rising global temperatures. The authors also note that some studies project significant future extinctions under pessimistic climate scenarios, but emphasize that current empirical evidence does not show climate change as the leading driver of observed extinctions to date.
Habitat loss, invasive species pose serious threats to biodiversity
The findings run counter to frequent warnings from environmental activists and some media outlets that global warming is pushing ecosystems toward collapse.
In recent years, public figures and advocacy groups have warned that rising temperatures could trigger widespread species losses, sometimes framing the threat as imminent and irreversible.
For instance, in November 2024, The Guardian reported that "as the planet warms, scientists predict a series of 'extinction cliffs,'" running the stark headline, "We are in danger of forgetting what the climate crisis means: extinction." Such warnings have become a familiar feature of public discourse.
Climate activists and prominent broadcasters have repeatedly warned that humanity is already deep into a new extinction era, with figures such as David Attenborough asserting that current extinction rates far exceed natural levels. Others, including BBC presenter Chris Packham, have gone further, describing the situation not as a sixth mass extinction but as a “mass extermination event.”
However, the Royal Society paper points to other drivers as the dominant causes of recent extinctions. Habitat loss and the introduction of invasive species were identified as the most significant threats to biodiversity, particularly on islands where species tend to have smaller populations and limited geographic ranges.
The study notes that many recorded extinctions have occurred in isolated ecosystems rather than across continental landmasses. The paper cites historical examples, including the extinction of narrowly endemic molluscs following the damming of Alabama's Coosa River in the early 20th century.
Watch this video about Dr. Craig D. Idso's "Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report on the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change."
This video is from the BrightLearn channel on Brighteon.com.
Sources include:
Please contact us for more information.